Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-04-12T00:15:18

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV), as observed by GOES-16 at GEO, started the day at normal background levels before becoming Moderate as the effects from the current HSS wane, and the radiation belts decompress with electron charging to raise flux levels which will probably reach High levels during Days 1 and 2 (11-12 Apr), although the CME arrivals might suppress levels temporarily on Day 2 (13 April) and more especially during Day 3 (14 April).

The associated 24 hour fluence is below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold and is likely to remain below through the forecast period, although a rising trend will probably continue. Temporary slight declines may occur at times in response to potential CME effects before a possible resumption in the upward trend. Met Office REFM output will not be taking account of CME effects, although now appears to have assimilated the effects of the HSS. As such it is now showing a rising trend below the Active threshold, which is reasonable guidance, but won't be taking account suppression due to the anticipated CME arrivals on Days 2 and 3 (13 and 14 April)..