Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-04-11T00:23:27

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV), as observed by GOES-16 at GEO, has remained mostly at normal background through the last 24 hours. Recent CME arrivals and a likely HSS arrival is expected to keep flux levels suppressed at first, before a possible rise in response to the HSS. Flux may peak at High levels during this time, before a further possible CME arrival late on Day 2 or early Day 3 (12/13 Apr) may suppress flux levels for a short spell.

The associated 24 hour fluence is below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold and is likely to remain below through the forecast period, although a rising trend is probable on Days 1 and 2. A decline is then likely for a spell on Day 3 in response to possible CME effects before a resumption in the upward trend. Met Office REFM output will not be taking account of CME effects, or the HSS as this is a non-recurrent feature, and model output may not be giving reliable guidance.