Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-04-18T00:15:44

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) as observed by GOES-16 at GEO has risen to a higher baseline in the past 24 hours to peak at High levels. Peak values are expected to rise to high levels through the period. Drop-outs are possible with induced geomagnetic activity as successive fast wind arrivals occur, although the timing and strength of these are low confidence. Recovery of flux levels are likely to follow any falls, but with decreased confidence for reaching High levels, especially by day 3 (20 April). 

The associated 24-hour electron fluence is currently on a rising trend, with REFM giving reasonable guidance. Fluence may continue to rise close to the Active (1e8) threshold in coming days. However confidence becomes low by day 3 (20 April), with potential fast wind arrivals and subsequent flux declines are possible.