MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-04-25T00:09:14
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as measured by GOES-16 at GEO is expected to be at mainly background to moderate levels, perhaps with a slight rising trend. Any glancing CME interaction on Day 1 (25 Apr) will keep electron levels suppressed in the short term. Otherwise, we appear to be experiencing weak HSS effects from CH77, but with wind speeds mostly below 500 km/s and little to no geomagnetic response, a significant rise in electron flux is considered unlikely.
The associated 24 hour fluence values are expected to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, with just a slight chance of rising above by the end of the period. REFM is currently giving reasonable guidance, suggesting a modest rise below the Active threshold.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2022-04-25T00:09:14 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 20% | 1% |