MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-04-24T00:24:13
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as measured by GOES-16 at GEO is expected to be at mainly background to moderate levels. A slight enhancement to the flux is possible day 2 (25th) onward, after the arrival of the fast wind of CH77 and any glancing CME interaction that occurs. This is expected to remain below the Alert threshold (1000 pfu), with a slight chance of rising above during diurnal peak period by day 4 (27th)
The associated 24 hour fluence values are expected to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, with REFM currently giving a reasonable guidance.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2022-04-24T00:24:13 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |