MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-04-23T00:25:26
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as measured by GOES-16 at GEO is expected to be at mainly background to moderate levels throughout. A slight enhancement to the flux is possible day 3 (25th) onward, after the arrival of the fast wind of CH77 and any glancing CME interaction that occurs, however this is expected to remain below the Alert threshold (1000 pfu).
The associated 24 hour fluence values are expected to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, with REFM currently giving good guidance for the first 24 hours, however becomes unreliable beyond this due to a persistence component with the coronal hole topography noticeably different on this rotation.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2022-04-23T00:25:26 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |