MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-04-30T00:16:33
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) reached high levels on the diurnal peak, 2960 ppcc at 29/1745 UTC, and may do so again over the next couple of days due to coronal hole influence. However, with possible glancing CMEs also in the forecast confidence is low.
The chance of Active fluence has risen with a likelihood of reaching the Active threshold in the first half of the period, similar to current MOSWOC REFM trends. During the second half of the forecast period fluence levels should gradually decrease again. As mentioned above any potential CME influences may modify these probabilities.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2022-04-30T00:16:33 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 60% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 50% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 30% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 20% | 1% |