MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-03-24T00:25:20
The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux as observed at GEO by GOES-16 is currently at predominantly Background levels, occasionally reaching Moderate.
There is unlikely to be any significant high energy electron flux response from the various weak CH influence. Therefore the electron fluence is unlikely to reach the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold through the forecast period. The general trend on MOSWOC REFM is currently flat and well below Active, which is accepted.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2022-03-24T00:25:20 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |