Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-02-22T00:14:03

High energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) as observed by GOES-16 at GEO is currently at background, having dropped out on the 19th. With solar winds rising to elevated levels due to CH56l, renewed electron charging is certainly possible. Electron flux may rise in the coming days, perhaps peaking at High levels (greater than 1000 pfu) from day 2 (23rd Feb) onward. On Days 3 and 4 (24-25 Feb), more persistently Moderate to potentially High flux is possible.

The associated 24 hour Fluence is currently well below the Active threshold and on a slight rising trend. In response to the weakening of the solar wind and the recent charging event, there is a gradually increasing chance of Fluence levels becoming Active (>1e8 integrated pfu). REFM is showing an overall rising trend in electron fluence over the coming days and can be used as a rough guide for likely fluence values.