Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-01-23T00:15:00

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux, as measured by GOES-16 at GEO, has been at Moderate to High levels after recent fast wind and CME enhancements, with a peak of 4040pfu at 22/1640UTC. Active fluence continues, with latest observations just above the Alert threshold. Detail in the forecast is very low confidence given the potential passage of several CMEs, the timing and phasing of which are uncertain. Of greater confidence is the arrival of the next coronal hole high speed stream that could take effect from later Day 1 (23 Jan), with HSS influence then likely continuing for much of the rest of the period, before waning later. Electron populations may become enhanced again in the second half of the period, but competing against this could be spells of enhanced geomagnetic activity from any glancing CME influences.

Again because of the heavily transient-influenced forecast, the signal from REFM should be considered low confidence, however the general downward trend is accepted.