Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-01-21T12:43:10

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux, as measured by GOES-16 at GEO, is currently High after recent fast wind and CME enhancements. The current level is likely to represent the peak of attainment in the period, with detail very low confidence for reliance on the incidence and phasing of so many transients. Of greater confidence is the resetting potential of the coronal hole high speed streams that should round out the forecast, meaning that initial Expected Active fluence should give way to a Chance from later in the UTC weekend, probably not re-establishing at current levels into the next working week.

Again because of the heavily transient-influenced forecast (or otherwise), overreliance on REFM's signal is advised against, however the advertised general downward trend is accepted.