Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-02-20T12:16:40

High energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) as observed by GOES-16 at GEO is currently at background, having dropped out on the 19th. With solar winds now having risen to near elevated levels due to a recent coronal hole fast wind arrival, renewed electron charging is certainly possible. Electron flux may rise in the coming days, perhaps peaking at High (greater than 1000 pfu) from Day 2 (21 Feb) onwards.  On Days 3 and 4 (22-23 Feb), more persistently Moderate to potentially High flux is possible. 

The associated 24 hour Fluence is currently well below the Active threshold, but may rise from Day 2 onwards, with a chance of reaching the Active threshold, most likely on Days 3 or 4.  REFM is now showing a rise in electron fluence as it starts to assimilate the arrival of the faster wind, although it is currently peaking below the Active level. This seems a reasonable trend, with lower confidence in the peak levels.