Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-02-23T00:16:25

High energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) as observed by GOES-16 at GEO has increaded from background levels to moderate levels. Electron flux is expected to rise in the coming days, perhaps peaking during the diurnal maximum at High levels (greater than 1000 pfu) on day 1 (23rd) and likely from day 2 (24th Feb) onward.

The associated 24 hour Fluence is currently well below the Active threshold and on a slight rising trend. There is a gradually increasing chance of Fluence levels becoming Active (>1e8 integrated pfu). REFM is showing an overall rising trend in electron fluence over the coming days and can be used as a rough guide for likely fluence values.