MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-02-23T12:16:30
High energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) as observed by GOES-16 at GEO is at normal background to moderate levels. Electron flux is expected to rise in the coming days, probably peaking during the diurnal maximum at High levels (greater than 1000 pfu) from day 2 (24th Feb) onwards.
The associated 24 hour Fluence is currently below the Active threshold and displays a mostly rising trend. There is an increasing chance of Fluence levels becoming Active (>1e8 integrated pfu), with a chance of exceeding this threshold by day 3 or 4 (25-26 Feb). Met Office REFM output is showing an overall rising trend in electron fluence over the coming days and can be used as a rough guide for likely fluence values.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2022-02-23T12:16:30 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 40% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 60% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 70% | 5% |