Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-03-02T12:34:41

High energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) is currently exhibiting a low trend within Background levels, but should respond upwards during days 1 and 2 (02 and 03 March) as we exist from the high speed stream of CH60. From late in day 2 (03 March) onward, the HSS from CH61 is expected to arrive, likely further suppressing the Van Allen belts and the electron count in the short-term. A rising trend is then expected once again toward the end of the forecast period but with a low risk that solar wind speeds will have relaxed sufficiently to surpass the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold.

The relevant four-day period from last rotation suffered from CME influences, so REFM guidance and persistence in general is expected to offer less of a steer than would usually be the case, meaning that confidence is lower than usual.