Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-04-02T00:32:04

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) flux, as observed by GOES-16 at GEO is expected to be largely background levels day 1, (2nd) with the potential for geomagnetic enhancement from arriving fast winds of CH70 and CH71, along with the expected arrival of the CME from the X-flare that occurred on the 30th. Flux levels then have the potential to rise later in the period as the near Earth solar wind environment eases, most likely through day 3 and 4 (4th and 5th). This will bring a chance of diurnal spells of High flux, perhaps persistently High by the end of the period.

The associated 24 hour fluence will remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) level day 1 (2nd), but has an increasing chance of rising above thereafter. REFM gives a good guide to the next 24 hours, in the absence of any CME or fast wind arrival. However, its value will be much reduced beyond this period, and once any CME or fast wind does arrive.