Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-04-03T00:17:06

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux, as observed by GOES-16 at GEO, reached a late peak just above High levels during the UTC day on 02 April. The current elevated wind speeds are likely to have given some electron charging, with an increase in flux levels expected through the next few days. It is probable that electron flux will reach High levels at the diurnal peaks through the next four days.

The associated 24-hour fluence will start below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, but it is on a rising trend. With an increase in flux levels predicted, it seems likely that fluence will continue to rise. There is a chance that Active levels may be reached on Day 1 (03 Apr), becoming likely by Days 3 and 4 (05-06 Apr).