Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-03-26T12:05:12

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux as observed by GOES-16 at GEO is currently at Background but likely to rise day 2 (27th) due to the arrival of the fast wind of CH69. This is further complicated by a likely CME arrival either late 27th or early 28th, likely causing a drop out to observed flux levels when it arrives. Despite this, periods of Moderate to High are possible on the 27th, and perhaps returning once any CME affects subside.

The associated 24 hour fluence is expected to rise from any moderate to high flux from the fast wind of CH69, although likely staying below the Active threshold, due to the potential CME arrival. However there is a slight chance that Active fluence does develop, with some uncertainty around the strength and timing of the CME. REFM is currently giving good guidance up to T+24, with fluence forecast to remain below the threshold. However beyond this period, any fast wind influence is likely to increase fluence above REFM values.