Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-03-25T12:25:26

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux as observed by GOES-16 at GEO is currently at Background and likely to persist at these levels through to day 3 (27th), perhaps peaking at Moderate levels due to recent fast wind enhancement. A potential further rise in then likely due to the arrival of the fast wind of CH69. Moderate, possibly peaking at High flux likely day 4 (28th) however confidence is low. 

The associated 24 hour fluence is expected to rise through the period, perhaps initially from recent fast wind enhancements, but more generally from any subsequent moderate to high flux from the fast wind of CH69. This bringing a chance of Active fluence by the end of the period. REFM is currently giving good guidance, with fluence remaining below the Active threshold, but with a potential slight rising trend.