Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-03-19T00:30:19

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux as observed at GEO by GOES-16 is currently at predominantly moderate levels. Further enhancement in the near term is unlikely, with no recent significant wind speed enhancements which would have caused charging. A combination of a possible CME and HSS arrival on Day 2 (20 March) is likely to keep flux levels suppressed at that time. A rise is then possible on Day 3 or 4 (21 or 22 March) if the wind speed does increase, once any geomagnetic effects wane.

The associated fluence is expected to stay well below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold for much of the period. A rise is possible on Day 3 or 4, although this is low confidence due to uncertainty in the CME/HSS forecast. REFM is currently underestimating the fluence level - it is probably providing reasonable guidance until Day 3 however.