Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-03-24T12:36:11

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux as observed at GEO by GOES-16 is currently at predominantly Normal Background levels.

The expected outlook for electron levels at GEO is now upward - the result of a succession of increasingly potent events that may include some or all of: CH67/+, the 20 March CME and then CH68/69/+. Despite this outlook, the 24-hour integrated fluence should remain below Active for the four days as an expected result of frequent bouts of geomagnetic activity and relatively short intervening quieter periods. Active fluence should become 'odds-on' into the new working week, probably more significantly so than on last rotation should the current behaviour of CH68/69 of 500-750km/s be repeated at Earth this UTC weekend. 

The latest MOSWOC REFM available is now beginning to hint at an activity upturn in its latest forecast points, however this has yet to fully establish itself - offering instead a hint in the expected direction of activity, which is accepted.