MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-04-01T00:12:27
A flat trend is expected at first in the high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux. However, from Day 1 (1st April) confidence becomes low with the CME arrivals likely to at least temporarily reduce flux levels. Thereafter, some erratic fluctuation is likely, but with a possible eventual rise towards the end of the period under potential influence of coronal holes 70 and 71. Despite this the associated 24 hour fluence is expected to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold.
The Met Office REFM is considered to be giving reasonable guidance, keeping the fluence below the Active threshold over the next 3 days, but with an increasing trend later in the period.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2022-04-01T00:12:27 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 30% | 5% |
| Day 4 | 40% | 5% |