Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-05-01T00:23:07

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed by GOES-16 at GEO is expected to see a day to day increase as solar wind pressure on the Van Allen belts eases. The belts have likely seen charging from the recent fast wind enhancement, with Moderate to High levels forecast late day 2 (2nd) onward. There is some uncertainty, however, with recent weak CME arrival and a further slight chance of a CME arrival on day 1 (1st), which could both have helped to clear out the electron content of the belts. There are no other potential sources of drop out or charging currently forecast.    

The associated 24 hour fluence is expected to remain below the active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold day 1, but with an increasing chance of rising above day 2 (2nd), and likely rising above days 3 and 4 (3rd and 4th). REFM is currently giving a mixed forecast, due to the model not taking account of the recent CME arrival, and hence the disparity in the short-term. However, it does have a suggestion of an increasing trend over the current value, once this influence subsides, and giving support to potentially reaching Active levels day 3 (3rd).