Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-05-31T00:14:45

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) values are currently at moderate and high levels, with a recent sharp rise probably related to effects from the high speed stream on the shape of the radiation belts. Periods of enhanced geomagnetic activity may also be causing displacement of electrons within the belts. The high speed stream is due to subside by day 2 or 3 (1 or 2 June) which may result in the electron flux reaching higher levels on diurnal highs and also maintaining a higher average value between peaks.

Electron fluence continues to rise sharply with fluence levels probably remaining above the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold for much of the forthcoming guidance period as a result of the increase in electron flux levels.