Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-05-08T00:13:06

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is forecast to be mainly Moderate, perhaps reaching High levels in its diurnal oscillation. A gradual decline in fluence is otherwise expected through the period in the unsupportive current solar wind environment.

The likelihood for Active fluence (1e8 integrated flux) levels to be reached should reduce with time, especially with potential significant geomagnetic activity occurring in the wake of any CMEs. Output from the Met Office REFM is therefore considered to be offering good guidance in keeping the fluence below the Active threshold, combined with a declining trend.