MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-06-06T12:30:36
High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) had previously been High (>1000 pfu) but has now dropped to background/moderate levels. A slight increase is expected once again from day 2 (7th), post CME, but levels are unlikely to exceed the High threshold.
The corresponding integrated electron fluence is expected to continue its decline below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold through day 1 (6th) and remain below this level for the rest of the period, albeit with slight increase on days 3 and 4 (8th and 9th).
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2022-06-06T12:30:36 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 100% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 30% | 1% |