help
Home HOME
 
month‹‹‹ week‹‹ day‹ ›››month ››week ›day
 

MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit

Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-06-06T12:30:36

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) had previously been High (>1000 pfu) but has now dropped to background/moderate levels. A slight increase is expected once again from day 2 (7th), post CME, but levels are unlikely to exceed the High threshold.
The corresponding integrated electron fluence is expected to continue its decline below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold through day 1 (6th) and remain below this level for the rest of the period, albeit with slight increase on days 3 and 4 (8th and 9th). 


 
High Energy Electron Event Forecast
Issued 2022-06-06T12:30:36
Probability of threshold exceedance
 ActiveV.Active
Day 1 100% 1%
Day 2 20% 1%
Day 3 20% 1%
Day 4 30% 1%