MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-05-06T12:06:44
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is forecast to continue between Moderate and High in its diurnal oscillation, but with a gradual slight decline in fluence through the period in the unsupportive current solar wind environment.
A daily Chance of Active fluence (1e8 integrated flux) should therefore fall with time, especially with potential significant geomagnetic activity occurring in the wake of any CME late on 07 May and into 08 May. The latest MOSWOC REFM is therefore considered to be offering good guidance in keeping the fluence below the Active threshold and with a declining trend.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2022-05-06T12:06:44 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 40% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 30% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |