Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-05-06T00:26:11

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is forecast to continue between Moderate and High in its diurnal oscillation, but with a gradual slight decline in fluence through the period in the unsupportive current solar wind environment. A daily Chance of Active fluence (1e8 integrated flux) should therefore fall with time, especially with potential significant geomagnetic activity occurring either late tomorrow or through day 3 (8th).

The Met Office REFM model is therefore considered to be offering good guidance, keep the fluence below the Active threshold and with a declining trend.