Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-06-06T00:27:12

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) levels have been at mainly high levels but have shown a sharp drop in the last 6 hours, possibly due to a CME glancing the radiation belts. As the solar wind continues at background levels, electron counts are expected to oscillate between the moderate and high levels, but with a diminishing peak over the four day period.

Integrated electron fluence levels are expected to follow a steady downward trend through the next four days, reflecting the declining electron flux. This is indicated in the REFM forecast, but the reduction is likely to follow a shallower decline than modelled. This is however dependent on the potential CME effects.