Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-04-06T12:14:01

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV), as observed by GOES-16 at GEO varied between Moderate and High levels in the last 24 hours, and in the absence of any other influences would be expected to persist at similar levels through the period. However the arrival of the CME later day 1 (6th) is likely to bring a dropout in values, persisting day 2 (7th), before a recovery to Moderate to high day 3 and day 4 (8th and 9th). The arrival of the fast wind of CH72, and low chance arrival of a further CME on the 9th, is then likely to cause a further dropout of values day 4 (9th).

The associated 24 hour electron fluence is currently Active (above 1e8 pfu), but expected to fall below day 2 (7th) due to any drop out that occurs from the CME arrival day 1 (6th). REFM is currently giving poor guidance, with an expected decrease, despite no knowledge of the anticipated CME arrival.