MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-04-06T00:13:46
High energy electron flux showed a slight diurnal increase in its oscillation over the UTC day of Tuesday 5th April, reaching High flux levels, with a peak of 2900 pfu at 05/1625UTC. This is due to the waning influence of CH70 and exit from a high speed stream. The 24-hour integrated fluence showed a steady rising trend to just above the Active fluence threshold.
Electron flux should be muted over the coming due to the arrival of two CMEs, the first on Day 1 (6th April) and the second on Day 4 (9th April), with the overall risk of Active significantly reduced on a daily basis.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2022-04-06T00:13:46 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |