Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-04-13T00:29:46

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is below the high threshold, due to recent limited Unsettled geomagnetic activity. There is uncertainty in how the electron belts will respond over the next three days. This is due to a combination of CME impacts distorting the belts and displacing electron due to heightened geomagnetic activity, contrasted with the CMEs also potentially injecting further electrons into the near Earth environment. The most likely outcome is expected to be a suppression of the electron flux on days 1 through to 3 (13 to 15 April), with a slow increase following the decrease in geomagnetic activity and onset of the coronal hole high speed stream from coronal hole 74 on day 4.

24 hour electron fluence is likely to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) level throughout due to the balance of contrasting effects. There is an increasing likelihood of the electron fluence increasing towards the Active threshold on day 4 (16 April). Due to the absence of consideration for the CMEs and relevant uncertainties, the REFM is unlikely to be of sufficient guidance.