Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-04-14T00:28:55

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) may exceed the high (1e3pfu) threshold ahead of the CME arrival on day 1. Increased geomagnetic activity, combined with the speed of the expected CME later on day 1, are likely to lead to distortion of the radiation belts out of their normal orbits and displacement of the electrons within the belt, both reducing electron counts. Geomagnetic activity is expected to decrease through the period, with the radiation belts slowly relaxing into their original orbits and leading to a subsequent sharp increase in electron flux by the end of the period. The magnitude of this increase is dependent in the amount of electrons input into the near-Earth environment by the CME and the high speed stream on days 3 and 4 (16 and 17 April).

Electron fluence is expected to follow a flat trend over the next 24 hours, but with a sharp decrease in response to the increased geomagnetic activity. A sharp increase is then likely on day 4 (17 April) due to the increased flux, but there is uncertainty in whether the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold is reached.