Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-04-21T00:10:55

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux as observed by GOES-16 at GEO has been varying between background and peak High levels. Any potential arrival of a further fast wind on day 1 could bring a drop out of flux returning to mainly background to Moderate levels. This arrival is low confidence however, with the potential for background to high levels to continue through the period, should this not materialise. 

The associated Electron fluence peaked at just below the Active threshold on the 20th, with a greater chance of rising just above on day 1 (21st), before the influence of any fast wind arrival then occurs. If any drop out in flux is observed, then the chance of Active fluence throughout the rest of the period will decline. However, this arrival and potential dropout is low confidence, with REFM showing the potential for an increasing trend, should this not occur. Consequently a 30% chance of Active fluence is maintained.