Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-05-20T12:00:16

High energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) as measured by GOES-16 at GEO is currently at background to moderate levels. It may rise over the next few days, as fast winds from CH82 ease, but the chances are slim. The increase in speed associated with the arrival of the fast speed stream was gradual and slow, so much so that there was not much compression generated and the co-rotating interaction region (CIR) remained weak. The chance of seeing flux levels reaching High (1000 pfu) levels is therefore possible but only during diurnal peaks.

Corresponding electron fluence is likely to show a slight upward trend through the period, however on balance it is most likely to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold. This is reflected by current REFM output, although this is currently trending too high on day 2 and 3 (21st and 22nd).