Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-04-20T00:43:51

The high energy electron flux as observed by GOES-16 at GEO has been oscillating between Moderate and High levels in recent days and is expected to remain similar, in the absence of further significant activity either from HSS or CMEs. The rising flux levels are in response to the recent HSS from CH75. A further HSS from CH76 is possible on Day 2 (21 Apr) but this is low confidence. If it does occur it may cause a temporary suppression in flux levels, but it now seems possible that this will not occur and flux levels will remain similar to their current level.

The associated fluence is on a rising trend and is now near the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, and may peak just above Active at times on Day 1 (20 Apr) and in the coming days. MOSWOC REFM has been variable, first suggesting a rising trend then a declining trend, and should not be followed too closely.