MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-05-20T00:27:29
High energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) as measured by GOES-16 at GEO is currently at background to moderate levels, but may rise over the next few days as fast winds of CH82 ease. This may give a chance of flux levels reaching High (1000 pfu) levels later in the period.
The corresponding electron fluence is likely to show an upward trend through the period, however on balance will most likely continue below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold. This is reflected by current REFM output, although this is currently trending too high on day 2 and 3 (21st and 22nd).
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2022-05-20T00:27:29 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |