MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-03-22T00:12:16
The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux as observed at GEO by GOES-16 is currently at Normal Background levels, with any significant enhancement in the near term unlikely. The next potential enhancement may come from CH67/+, which is due to arrive on Day 3 (24 March), once the initial CIR effects have waned. However, this feature is expected to be weak with little geomagnetic response, so is unlikely to raise electron levels enough to reach the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) fluence threshold in the forecast period. The general trend on MOSWOC REFM is currently flat and well below Active, with this accepted.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2022-03-22T00:12:16 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |