Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-04-15T00:16:18

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed by GOES-16 at GEO has dropped out due to recent CME arrival. As the solar wind environment eases, the Van Allen belts are expected to relax, resulting in the observed flux at GEO to rise to Moderate, and potentially peaking at High levels on day 2 (16th). A further drop out in values is then likely later day 2 (16th), with the arrival of the fast wind of CH74, although this is low confidence in both timing and strength. A notable flux enhancement from this feature is currently considered unlikely, due to its unfavoured polarity, limited expected geomagnetic response, and the features relative immaturity with being new for this solar rotation.

The associated 24 hour electron fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold throughout, but with a slight chance of rising above by day 3 (17th). REFM is not giving good guidance at this stage, as this currently doesn't take account of the recent CME arrival.