Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-03-15T12:06:07

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux as observed at GEO by GOES-16 is currently at background levels. The recent CME arrival has suppressed electron flux levels, but some charging may have occurred from the higher wind speeds, although these higher wind speeds were relatively short lived. Therefore a rise in electron levels is possible from Day 1 (15 Mar) onwards, although some uncertainty remains as to the level of charging we may have experienced.

The associated 24 hour electron fluence is likely to follow a rising trend if we see an electron response to this CME, but currently confidence is low as to whether it is likely to reach the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, with a chance on Days 2-4 (16-18 Mar), but with some uncertainty due to the potential glancing blow from a weak CME on Day 3 (17 Mar).