MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-03-17T00:23:41
The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux as observed at GEO by GOES-16 is currently at predominantly background levels. No definite sources of enhancement are currently expected in the period until the next coronal hole high speed stream from CH66/- arrives, most likely day 4 (20th). There is a slight chance of a glancing CME day 1 (17th), but enhancement from this appears unlikely. CME analysis from the filament eruptions on 16th are still awaiting model results as to whether there may be any impacts at Earth.
The associated 24 hour electron fluence is currently well below the Active level, and expected to remain at this level but with a possible rising trend late in the period. This is supported by REFM, which appears to be giving reasonable guidance.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2022-03-17T00:23:41 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |