Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-03-09T12:14:05

The high energy (2 MeV) electron flux is currently at High levels. However, there is a chance of two CME arrivals during Day 2 (10 Mar), although these are low confidence. Should one or both of these occur, electron flux is expected to drop out. As such, the electron forecast is low confidence due to the uncertainty in the CME arrivals. In the absence of CMEs, a slowly declining trend is expected.

The associated 24-hour fluence is currently above the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu), but may decline sharply if we see either CME arrive. Otherwise, a slow decline is most likely.

The REFM model does not assimilate data associated with possible CME arrivals, so it is not expected to be giving good guidance at the current time. It is also considered to be reducing the fluence too quickly if the CME(s) do not occur.