Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-04-16T00:02:19

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed by GOES-16 at GEO temporarily dropped out due to recent CME arrival, however the slight elevated to elevated solar wind environment has increased activity once more in the Van Allen belts resulting in the observed flux at GEO to rise to Moderate. There is a potential for it peaking at High levels during the diurnal maximum through the next 4 days. Any significant geomagnetic response due to CH influences  may force a drop out in values but this may only be brief because a notable flux enhancement from this feature is currently considered unlikely, due to its unfavoured polarity, limited expected geomagnetic response, and the features relative immaturity with being new for this solar rotation.

The associated 24 hour electron fluence is likely to remain below the Active threshold throughout, but with a chance of approaching the active threshold by day 3 (18th). REFM is not giving good guidance at this stage and activity is likely to be higher at times than indicated.