MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-05-16T00:27:20
High energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) is currently at Normal background to Moderate levels, but may rise over the next few days due to high speed stream influence from CH81/+ , which arrived earlier than anticipated.
The corresponding electron fluence is therefore expected to show an upward trend through the period, however on balance will most likely continue below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold. This is reflected by current REFM output and in the probabilities table above.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2022-05-16T00:27:20 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 30% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 40% | 1% |