Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-06-15T00:15:59

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed by GOES-16 is currently at background to moderate levels. Similar conditions are expected to persist between the 15-17th with the electron belts suppressed due to the influence of a CME and at least two coronal holes that follow. The risk of the electron flux becoming moderate or high increases as the high speed stream begins to weaken on the 18th, allowing the Van Allen radiation belts to recharge themselves. This will marginally increase the risk of fluence levels reaching the Active (1e8 integrated pfu), though this is much more likely to occur after the 18th.

REFM output is considered to be unreliable at this time for the first three days of the forecast, given the anticipated arrival of the CME that will subdue electron counts. A rise on the 18th is likely to occur, but likely well below forecast and the Active threshold.