Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-05-15T00:21:54

High energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) is expected to be at Normal background to Moderate levels during the first half of the forecast period, but may rise from Tuesday 17 May (day three) once the high speed stream originating from CH81/+ proper becomes established. The current slight enhancement is not thought strong enough to have an appreciable effect on electron populations, and in any case any gains in electron populations ought to be redistributed by subsequent geomagnetic activity.

The corresponding electron fluence is therefore expected to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold during the forecast period, but with a probable rising trend late in the period. This is reflected current REFM output.