MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-05-09T00:10:30
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is forecast to be mainly Moderate, perhaps reaching High levels in its diurnal oscillation. A gradual decline in fluence is otherwise likely through the period in the unsupportive current solar wind environment.
The likelihood for Active fluence levels to be reached should reduce with time, especially with potential significant geomagnetic activity occurring in the wake of any CMEs. Output from MOSWOC REFM is therefore considered to be offering good guidance in keeping the fluence below the Active threshold, combined with a declining trend.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2022-05-09T00:10:30 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |