MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-05-10T00:30:42
High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to be at mainly background levels through the forecast period. This is due to an initial ambient solar wind, followed by increased solar wind speeds which could displace the belts from their orbits and geomagnetic activities which could suppress the count of electrons within the belts.
Based on the analysis of potential electron flux, electron fluence is expected to be well below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2022-05-10T00:30:42 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |