Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-06-08T00:08:55

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has been at mostly background levels through the last two days, after recent High levels. It is notable that the High levels dropped out sharply before the recent CME arrival. Now that those CME effects have waned, there is a slight possibility of a recovery in flux levels. However, the fact that the flux levels dropped out before the CME arrival suggests that flux levels may well stay at background or perhaps moderate levels until we get faster winds to charge the electrons. As there are no large coronal holes on the disc at present, charging is considered unlikely in this period.

Therefore, electron fluence is expected to stay below the Active threshold through to at least Day 4 (11 June), although a slight chance is maintained in case of a resumption of the previous High flux levels now that CME effects have waned. REFM is currently forecasting fluence to remain below the Active threshold, which is considered good guidance.