MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-06-10T00:13:27
High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to remain at mainly background to moderate levels through the next four days. There may be a slightly rising trend in the diurnal peak during the period should the Earth connect with the weak coronal hole 87.
Corresponding electron fluence values are also expected to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) throughout, with a steady or possibly gently increasing trend.
The Met Office REFM model supports the fluence remaining well below the Active threshold, but shows a decreasing trend, which is considered unlikely.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2022-06-10T00:13:27 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |